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How many fatalities will result from fighting between the armed forces of Azerbaijan and either the Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Army or the armed forces of Armenia between 20 June 2017 and 1 July 2018?

0-0.0500.050.10.150.20.250.30.350.40.450.50.55
24 Forecasters • 53 Forecasts
Started Jun 20, 2017 05:00PM
Closed Apr 1, 2018 06:59AM (7 years ago)
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 10
0%
10-99
50%
100-999
41%
1,000 or more
2%

Before 1 January 2018, will the UN Security Council hold an emergency meeting in response to new suspected use of chemical weapons in Syria?

10%

Chance
55 Forecasters • 136 Forecasts
Started Jun 6, 2017 05:00PM
Closed Dec 30, 2017 07:59AM (7 years ago)

Before 2018, will there be a lethal attack on a US military vessel in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, Persian Gulf, or Gulf of Oman?

5%

Chance
116 Forecasters • 249 Forecasts
Started May 23, 2017 05:00PM
Closed Jan 1, 2018 07:59AM (7 years ago)

How many countries will have a manned, fixed-wing, military aircraft downed in the CENTCOM area of responsibility before 2018?

0-0.0500.050.10.150.20.250.30.350.40.450.50.55
64 Forecasters • 235 Forecasts
Started May 23, 2017 05:00PM
Closed Jan 1, 2018 07:59AM (7 years ago)
 Show All Possible Answers
0
0%
1
35%
2 or 3
50%
4 or 5
5%
More than 5
0%

Will the Taliban take Lashkar Gah before 1 April 2018?

25%

Chance
67 Forecasters • 183 Forecasts
Started May 16, 2017 05:00PM
Closed Apr 1, 2018 06:59AM (7 years ago)

Before 1 October 2018, will the UN Security Council pass a resolution imposing an arms embargo on South Sudan?

15%

Chance
85 Forecasters • 197 Forecasts
Started May 9, 2017 05:00PM
Closed Oct 1, 2018 06:59AM (7 years ago)

Will North Korea launch a land-based intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) before 1 November 2017?

6%

Chance
212 Forecasters • 629 Forecasts
Started Apr 18, 2017 05:00PM
Closed Nov 1, 2017 06:59AM (8 years ago)
 The Early Warning Project asks

Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from the Philippines engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines?

21%

Chance
120 Forecasters • 352 Forecasts
Started Mar 31, 2017 05:00PM
Closed Jul 1, 2017 06:59AM (8 years ago)
 The Early Warning Project asks

Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Zimbabwe engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Zimbabwe?

2%

Chance
75 Forecasters • 205 Forecasts
Started Mar 31, 2017 05:00PM
Closed Jul 1, 2017 06:59AM (8 years ago)
 The Early Warning Project asks

Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Bangladesh engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Bangladesh?

1%

Chance
72 Forecasters • 202 Forecasts
Started Mar 31, 2017 05:00PM
Closed Jul 1, 2017 06:59AM (8 years ago)
 
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