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Will Moon Jae-in win South Korea's upcoming presidential election?

Started May 02, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed May 09, 2017 06:59AM UTC

South Koreans will go to the polls on 9 May 2017 to elect their new president (NY Times). Moon Jae-in ran for president in 2012, losing narrowly to Park Geun-hye. He is now the presumed front runner (NY Times, Reuters). Recommended Questions: Who will win Iran's May 2017 Presidential Election Will North Korea launch a land-based intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) before 1 November 2017? Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
This question was closed as "yes" with an end date of 9 May 2017 (NY Times).
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 98.00%
No 2.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 61
Average for questions older than 6 months: 125
Number of Forecasts 90
Average for questions older than 6 months: 349
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.000029
2.
-0.000029
3.
-0.000029
4.
-0.000029
5.
-0.000029

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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