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Will a new Supreme Court Justice be confirmed before 30 April 2017?

Started Jan 17, 2017 05:00PM
Closed Apr 7, 2017 05:00PM (8 years ago)

The United States Supreme Court has had one vacant seat since the February 2016 death of Antonin Scalia. Appointing a new justice will be one of the first big tasks of the Trump administration (The Economist). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on whether the U.S. will provide notice of intent to withdraw from NAFTA or on whether the Dakota Access Pipeline will begin transporting oil before January 2018?.
This question was closed as "yes" with an end date of 7 April 2017 (LA Times, Reuters). See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 90.00%
No 10.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 917
Average for questions older than 6 months: 125
Number of Forecasts 2013
Average for questions older than 6 months: 349
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.080729
2.
-0.080729
3.
-0.080729
4.
-0.080729
5.
-0.078242

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Jan 17, 2017 9:22AM PST (80 days before close, question was 0% complete)
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