Before 15 February 2017, will the United Kingdom's Supreme Court rule that an additional act of the U.K. Parliament is required to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty?
Started
Jan 11, 2017 06:00AM UTC
Closed Jan 23, 2017 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 23, 2017 06:00PM UTC
Challenges
This question was closed as "Yes" with an end date of 23 January 2017. The Supreme Court ruled that an act of Parliament was required to invoke Article 50 (BBC, NY Times).
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The United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union in a referendum in June 2016 and Prime Minister May has planned to begin that process by invoking Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty in March 2017, but a recent High Court ruling stipulated that the government could not do so without an additional act of Parliament (BBC, Wall Street Journal, Judiciary UK). The government appealed the High Court's ruling and the Supreme Court is now is expected to issue its decision in January (BBC, Washington Post). Rulings pertaining to the devolved parliaments of Wales, Northern Ireland, or Scotland will not affect the resolution of this question. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on when the UK will invoke Article 50 or on whether any other European Union (EU) member state will set a date for a referendum on leaving the EU.
The United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union in a referendum in June 2016 and Prime Minister May has planned to begin that process by invoking Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty in March 2017, but a recent High Court ruling stipulated that the government could not do so without an additional act of Parliament (BBC, Wall Street Journal, Judiciary UK). The government appealed the High Court's ruling and the Supreme Court is now is expected to issue its decision in January (BBC, Washington Post). Rulings pertaining to the devolved parliaments of Wales, Northern Ireland, or Scotland will not affect the resolution of this question. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on when the UK will invoke Article 50 or on whether any other European Union (EU) member state will set a date for a referendum on leaving the EU.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 90.00% | |
| No | 10.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 146 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 125 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 236 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 349 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
