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&nbsp The Monkey Cage asks

Before 30 April 2017, will the U.S. give notice of intent to withdraw from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change?

Started Jan 06, 2017 06:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 29, 2017 05:00PM UTC

The UNFCCC entered into force for the United States in 1994 (UNFCCC, UNFCCC). President-elect Donald Trump has cast uncertainty over the future of U.S. policy on climate change (The Guardian, The Orange County Register). Under Article 25 of the UNFCCC agreement, a party can withdraw from the Convention one year after giving notification (UNFCCC, UN Treaty Collection). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on whether the U.S. will provide notice of intent to withdraw from NAFTA or on whether the Dakota Access Pipeline will begin transporting oil before January 2018?.
This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 29 April 2017. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 5.00%
No 95.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 938
Average for questions older than 6 months: 125
Number of Forecasts 1791
Average for questions older than 6 months: 349
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.088471
2.
-0.088471
3.
-0.088471
4.
-0.088471
5.
-0.088471

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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