Will the government of Colombia and the FARC renegotiate a peace agreement before 1 March 2017?
Started
Nov 08, 2016 06:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 13, 2016 06:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 13, 2016 06:00PM UTC
Challenges
This question was closed with the correct answer 'Yes' with an end date of 13 November 2016. The government of Columbia and the FARC reached an agreement on a new peace deal on 13 November 2016 (BBC, CNN, NPR).
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On 2 October 2016 the Colombian people voted to reject a peace accord between Colombia and the FARC (The City Paper Bogota). Since the referendum rejection, both sides have said they will return to negotiations, and President Santos has said he'd like to see a deal by the end of the year (PBS NewsHour, CBC News). Renegotiation requires that Colombia and the FARC agree on the terms of a peace agreement. Ratification is not required. However, interim agreements on specific topics (e.g. BBC) will NOT resolve this question. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on whether Yemen's Houthi rebels will sign a peace agreement, or whether the US will endorse a peace plan that allows Bashar al-Assad to remain in power.
On 2 October 2016 the Colombian people voted to reject a peace accord between Colombia and the FARC (The City Paper Bogota). Since the referendum rejection, both sides have said they will return to negotiations, and President Santos has said he'd like to see a deal by the end of the year (PBS NewsHour, CBC News). Renegotiation requires that Colombia and the FARC agree on the terms of a peace agreement. Ratification is not required. However, interim agreements on specific topics (e.g. BBC) will NOT resolve this question. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on whether Yemen's Houthi rebels will sign a peace agreement, or whether the US will endorse a peace plan that allows Bashar al-Assad to remain in power.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 90.00% | |
No | 10.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 70 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 125 | |
Number of Forecasts | 120 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 349 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |