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Will the government of Colombia and the FARC renegotiate a peace agreement before 1 March 2017?

Started Nov 08, 2016 06:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 13, 2016 06:00PM UTC

This question was closed with the correct answer 'Yes' with an end date of 13 November 2016. The government of Columbia and the FARC reached an agreement on a new peace deal on 13 November 2016 (BBC, CNN, NPR). See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated
On 2 October 2016 the Colombian people voted to reject a peace accord between Colombia and the FARC (The City Paper Bogota). Since the referendum rejection, both sides have said they will return to negotiations, and President Santos has said he'd like to see a deal by the end of the year (PBS NewsHour, CBC News). Renegotiation requires that Colombia and the FARC agree on the terms of a peace agreement. Ratification is not required. However, interim agreements on specific topics (e.g. BBC) will NOT resolve this question. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on whether Yemen's Houthi rebels will sign a peace agreement, or whether the US will endorse a peace plan that allows Bashar al-Assad to remain in power.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 90.00%
No 10.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 70
Average for questions older than 6 months: 125
Number of Forecasts 120
Average for questions older than 6 months: 349
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.698
2.
-0.698
3.
-0.618
4.
-0.511
5.
-0.511

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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