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Will farmland values in the Seventh Federal Reserve District be higher in the first quarter of 2017 than they were in first quarter of 2016?

Started Oct 28, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 31, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Challenges

Read about Superforecasting for the farm at Successful Farming. Falling commodity prices have prompted a decline in the value of agricultural land (Agriculture.com, CropLife). The Seventh Federal Reserve District, which includes all of Iowa and most of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and Wisconsin (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago), saw farmland values decline by 4% in the first quarter of 2016 compared to the same period in 2015. This question will be resolved by data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago). Changes in land values are reported in the quarterly newsletter and recorded in their historical data as "Seventh District Land Values." Question will be suspended on 31 March 2017 and closed when the data for the first quarter of 2017 are released, typically in May. Recommended Questions Will Venezuela or its state-owned oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA) default on any of its foreign debt before 1 February 2017? This question was closed as "no" with end date of 31 March 2017 (Chicago Fed). See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 10.00%
No 90.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 246
Average for questions older than 6 months: 125
Number of Forecasts 552
Average for questions older than 6 months: 349
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.159062
2.
-0.159062
3.
-0.157227
4.
-0.15703
5.
-0.15703

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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