The Mack Institute asks
Will an Uber self-driving car with a member of the public as a passenger be involved in an auto accident while driving autonomously between 14 October 2016 and 1 January 2017?
Started
Oct 14, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 31, 2016 06:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 31, 2016 06:00PM UTC
Challenges
Tags
This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. Although there were some reports that Uber vehicle was involved in an accident in October (WTAE Pittsburgh), there was no evidence that there was a passenger in the car or that the vehicle was in autonomous mode. There are no indications of other accidents.
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In the first public test of self-driving cars in the US, Uber recently launched a program where the public can hail and ride in one of the company’s autonomous vehicles (Uber, NY Times). Each car has two Uber employees seated in the front seats who can take control when needed (NPR, Scientific American). However, concerns remain about the safety of these cars at this initial stage of development, especially in light of the recent accidents involving a Tesla Model S (The Verge), and a Google self-driving car (Quartz). For this question to resolve as “yes”, an Uber self-driving car must physically contact another vehicle or object while driving autonomously. Malfunctions that do not result in an accident would not be sufficient to resolve the question (e.g. Quartz).
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
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Yes | 1.00% | |
No | 99.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 244 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 125 | |
Number of Forecasts | 511 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 349 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |