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Before 1 July 2017, will Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte proclaim martial law?

Started Oct 11, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed May 31, 2017 05:00PM UTC

Since President Duterte took office in July 2016, police and private citizens have killed thousands as part of a "war on drugs" encouraged by the president (Time, Business Insider, NY Times). In August 2016, Duterte threatened to declare martial law if the country's judiciary interfered in this campaign (Time). According to the Philippine Constitution, the President must submit a report to Congress 48 hours after proclaiming martial law and Congress has the authority to revoke the proclamation (see Article VII, Section 18 in The Constitution of the Republic of the Philippines). If Duterte proclaims martial law, the question will close on option A if Congress does not revoke the proclamation within a week from the date of his proclamation. Recommended Questions Will Turkey still be under a state of emergency on 1 November 2016? Before 2018, which country will be the first to experience two or more anti-government mass protests within one week?
This question was closed as "Yes, and Congress will NOT revoke the proclamation" with an end date of 31 May 2017. President Duterte declared martial law in Mindanao on 24 May 2017 (Chicago Tribune, BBC). Congress did not revoke the proclamation within a week of the proclamation. The Philippine Senate approved a resolution voicing support for President Duterte’s declaration of martial law in Mindanao, and later rejected a resolution by the minority bloc calling for a joint session of Congress (The Philippine Star). See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, and Congress will NOT revoke the proclamation 17%
Yes, but Congress WILL revoke the proclamation 1%
No 82%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 310
Average for questions older than 6 months: 125
Number of Forecasts 988
Average for questions older than 6 months: 349
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.547241
2.
-1.514064
3.
-1.475317
4.
-1.469954
5.
-1.380441

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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