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&nbsp The Monkey Cage asks

Will Senator Kelly Ayotte (R-NH) be re-elected this November?

Started Sep 16, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 08, 2016 06:00PM UTC

This question was closed with the correct answer 'No' with an end date of 8 November 2016. Incumbent Senator Kelly Ayotte (R - NH) lost her bid for reelection to Democrat Maggie Hassan. (NY Times) See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated
Incumbent Republican Senator Kelly Ayotte is facing Democratic challenger Maggie Hassan in a tight race (Real Clear Politics, Huffington Post). Ayotte is one of a number of incumbent Republican senators walking the tightrope between criticizing Donald Trump's often unpopular rhetoric and supporting their party's nominee for president, and she has indicated that she will vote for Trump but will not endorse him (Washington Post, CNN). Recommended Questions Will Senator Pat Toomey (R-PA) be re-elected this November? Will North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory (R) be re-elected this November? Will Senator Rob Portman (R-OH) be re-elected this November? Will Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI) be re-elected this November?
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 50.00%
No 50.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 227
Average for questions older than 6 months: 125
Number of Forecasts 643
Average for questions older than 6 months: 349
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.465483
2.
-0.446238
3.
-0.3452
4.
-0.3452
5.
-0.336898

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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