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When will the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approve release of the next tranche of its loan to Ukraine?

Started Aug 31, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 14, 2016 05:00PM UTC

This question was closed on option "a) Before 1 October 2016. " The IMF approved the release of $1 billion, the third tranche of its loan, to Ukraine on 14 September 2016 (, Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal). In March 2015, the IMF approved a four-year, $17.5-billion loan program for Ukraine (IMF). Two tranches of funds have been released, but the third has been delayed by concerns over stalled progress on expected reforms (Reuters). In July of 2016, the IMF delayed release of the third tranche (Radio Free Europe, Ukraine Today). Extending the review process or delaying the approval decision without the release of additional monies (e.g. by requiring Ukraine to show more progress in meeting IMF conditions, as they did in May 2016 (IMF), will not resolve the question as "yes." The question will resolve as "yes" when the IMF approves the release of the next tranche of loans to Ukraine, regardless of the dollar amount. Recommended Questions Will local elections be held in the city of Donetsk before 1 January 2017? Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Ukraine before 1 January 2017?
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Not before 1 January 2017 0%
Between 1 October 2016 and 31 December 2016, inclusive 1%
Before 1 October 2016 99%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 55
Average for questions older than 6 months: 125
Number of Forecasts 144
Average for questions older than 6 months: 349
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.542975
2.
-0.537789
3.
-0.510289
4.
-0.437432
5.
-0.437432

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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