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&nbspThe Mack Institute asks

Between 12 August 2016 and the end of 2016, will any US state enact legislation that allows autonomous vehicles to operate on its public roads?

Started Aug 12, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 29, 2016 05:00PM UTC

This question was closed on option A with a closing date of 9/29/2016. On 29 September 2016, California's governor signed a bill into law which permits the use of autonomous vehicles on some state roads (Road & Track, East County Today, California Legislative Information). Most states neither explicitly allow nor explicitly ban the operation of autonomous vehicles on public roads, making such vehicles de facto legal (Washington Post). However, several states are considering legislation that would explicitly allow autonomous vehicles to operate on public roads (National Conference of State Legislatures, The Center for Internet and Society). Autonomous vehicles are those that can operate without the active control or monitoring of a human driver, at least under some conditions. This does not refer to cars with regular features such as adaptive cruise control, lane assist, crash avoidance, emergency braking, and other technology unless those features allow a driver to cede all control and monitoring. Any legislation enacted allowing autonomous vehicles on public roads will resolve the question as "yes," even if the legislation places restrictions on those autonomous vehicles (e.g., by limiting operation to certain roads or conditions, or only allowing operation for the purposes of research or testing). Recommended Questions Will Tesla Motors deliver more than 80,000 BEVs to customers in calendar year 2016? Will the 2016 industry-wide average cost of Li-on batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles be less than $300 per kWh? When will Tesla release a software update that adds off-ramp capabilities to its Autopilot system?
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 80.00%
No 20.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 249
Average for questions older than 6 months: 125
Number of Forecasts 499
Average for questions older than 6 months: 349
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.758658
2.
-1.741888
3.
-1.692017
4.
-1.608063
5.
-1.568138

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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