The Mack Institute asks
Between 12 August 2016 and the end of 2016, will any US state enact legislation that allows autonomous vehicles to operate on its public roads?
Started
Aug 12, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 29, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 29, 2016 05:00PM UTC
This question was closed on option A with a closing date of 9/29/2016. On 29 September 2016, California's governor signed a bill into law which permits the use of autonomous vehicles on some state roads (Road & Track, East County Today, California Legislative Information).
Most states neither explicitly allow nor explicitly ban the operation of autonomous vehicles on public roads, making such vehicles de facto legal (Washington Post). However, several states are considering legislation that would explicitly allow autonomous vehicles to operate on public roads (National Conference of State Legislatures, The Center for Internet and Society). Autonomous vehicles are those that can operate without the active control or monitoring of a human driver, at least under some conditions. This does not refer to cars with regular features such as adaptive cruise control, lane assist, crash avoidance, emergency braking, and other technology unless those features allow a driver to cede all control and monitoring. Any legislation enacted allowing autonomous vehicles on public roads will resolve the question as "yes," even if the legislation places restrictions on those autonomous vehicles (e.g., by limiting operation to certain roads or conditions, or only allowing operation for the purposes of research or testing).
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 80.00% | |
No | 20.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 249 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 125 | |
Number of Forecasts | 499 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 349 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |