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Who will win the upcoming election for the United Kingdom's Labour Party?

Started Aug 09, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 24, 2016 06:59AM UTC

Jeremy Corbyn maintained his leadership of the Labor Party in September's election (CNN, The Guardian). Since "Leave" won the Brexit referendum, Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn has come under intense criticism and is now facing a tough race for leadership of his party (BBC, Wall Street Journal). The results of the election are scheduled to be released on 24 September 2016. Recommended Questions Before 1 July 2017, will Scotland set a date for another referendum on independence from the United Kingdom? When will the United Kingdom invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty? What will the end-of-day closing value for the British pound against the US dollar be on 30 December 2016?
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Jeremy Corbyn 98%
Owen Smith 2%
None of the above 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 204
Average for questions older than 6 months: 125
Number of Forecasts 403
Average for questions older than 6 months: 349
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.004726
2.
-0.004726
3.
-0.004726
4.
-0.004726
5.
-0.004713

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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