Will SpaceX launch the Falcon Heavy rocket into low earth orbit before 1 March 2017?
Started
Jun 14, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 01, 2017 07:59AM UTC
Closed Mar 01, 2017 07:59AM UTC
Challenges
Tags
This question was closed on "No" with an end date of 28 February 2017.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
The new Falcon Heavy space launch vehicle is a heavy-lift version of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket and is crucial for achieving the company’s goal of sending a cargo capsule to Mars in 2018 (The Verge 1, 2). The initial launch, originally scheduled for summer 2016, has been pushed back to December 2016 (Spaceflight 101). For more information on low earth orbit see: Wikipedia, Wired. Clarification Issued 6/22/2016: Falcon Heavy reaching an LEO altitude will resolve this as "yes". Recommended Questions: Will Tesla Motors deliver more than 80,000 BEVs to customers in calendar year 2016? Will there be any publicly disclosed cyber attacks on nuclear facilities before the end of 2016? Will Toyota sell or lease more than 750 Mirai in the US in 2016?
The new Falcon Heavy space launch vehicle is a heavy-lift version of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket and is crucial for achieving the company’s goal of sending a cargo capsule to Mars in 2018 (The Verge 1, 2). The initial launch, originally scheduled for summer 2016, has been pushed back to December 2016 (Spaceflight 101). For more information on low earth orbit see: Wikipedia, Wired. Clarification Issued 6/22/2016: Falcon Heavy reaching an LEO altitude will resolve this as "yes". Recommended Questions: Will Tesla Motors deliver more than 80,000 BEVs to customers in calendar year 2016? Will there be any publicly disclosed cyber attacks on nuclear facilities before the end of 2016? Will Toyota sell or lease more than 750 Mirai in the US in 2016?
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.00% | |
| No | 99.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 579 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 125 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 1672 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 349 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
