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&nbspThe Mack Institute asks

Will Nissan sell more than 15,000 units of the LEAF in the US in 2016?

Started Jun 14, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 31, 2016 06:00PM UTC

This question closed as "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. Sales of the Leaf were 14,006 for 2016 (Nissan). See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Nissan LEAF is the world’s all-time best selling battery-powered electric car, with global sales of over 200,000 units since its launch in 2010 (Nissan). More than 30,000 LEAFS were sold in the US during 2014, up from 22,610 in 2013. However, there was a sharp decline in 2015 with total sales in the US amounting to only 17,269. The newly-released 2016 LEAF has an upgraded 30 kWh battery option which will yield an estimated 107-mile range, a 27% improvement over the 24 kWh option offered in the previous model (Car and Driver). During the first quarter of this year, 2,931 units of LEAF were sold in the US. Question will be resolved using data from Good Car Bad Car. Recommended Questions: Will Tesla Motors deliver more than 80,000 BEVs to customers in calendar year 2016? Will Toyota sell or lease more than 750 Mirai in the US in 2016? Will Faraday Future, NextEV, or Atieva start taking orders for electric vehicles in 2016?
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 265
Average for questions older than 6 months: 125
Number of Forecasts 595
Average for questions older than 6 months: 349
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.002671
2.
-0.002642
3.
-0.002568
4.
-0.002545
5.
-0.002446

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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