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Will a Spanish prime minister win a vote of confidence before 1 October 2016?

Started Jun 07, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 30, 2016 05:00PM UTC

This question was closed on option B ('No') with a closing date of 30 September 2016. A Spanish Minister had not won a vote of confidence as of that date and negotiations over government formation continued (NY Times, Wall Street Journal). Spain is expected to hold parliamentary elections again on 26 June 2016, after elections held in December 2015 produced a fragmented parliament that failed to approve several nominated governments (Financial Times, NY Times). To form a government, a Prime Minister (referred to in the constitution as the President of the Government) must win a vote of confidence in Spain's parliament (See Part IV, Section 99 of the Spanish Constitution). Recommended Questions: Before 2018, will it be officially announced that any state is withdrawing from the Schengen agreement? Will more than 1 million refugees and migrants arrive in Europe by sea in 2016? In 2016 will any of the G7 countries experience either inflation of 2% or more or GDP growth of 2.5% or more?
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 164
Average for questions older than 6 months: 125
Number of Forecasts 707
Average for questions older than 6 months: 349
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.644469
2.
-0.595532
3.
-0.577413
4.
-0.562283
5.
-0.538194

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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