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&nbspThe Mack Institute asks

Will annual sales of electric vehicles in China reach 500,000 in 2016?

Started Apr 22, 2016 02:42AM UTC
Closed Dec 31, 2016 06:00PM UTC

This question was resolved as "yes" with an end date of 31 December 2016. The English Language press releases on the Chinese Association of Automotive Statistics have not included annual sales for electric vehicles in 2016 (CAAM), but the Chinese language press release (CAAM) shows that 507,000 electric vehicles were sold in 2016. The numbers increased 63.9% and 65.1% respectively comparing to the year before, with 409,000 BEV units sold and 98,000 PHEV units sold. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
In 2012 the Chinese government set a target of reaching 500,000 annual unit sales of electric vehicles by 2015 (Forbes, CleanTechnica, Scientific American). In 2015, electric vehicle sales, including battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), in China were 331,092 (China Association of Automobile Manufacturers). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2016 and will be closed when the 2016 data is released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers’ (CAAM) website. Monthly and yearly data on electric vehicle sales are included in periodic press releases titled "New Energy Vehicles." The January release is cited above. Recommended Questions What will be the end-of-day closing value for the dollar against the renminbi on 30 September 2016? Will Tesla Motors deliver more than 80,000 BEVs to customers in calendar year 2016?
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 7.00%
No 93.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 416
Average for questions older than 6 months: 125
Number of Forecasts 1063
Average for questions older than 6 months: 349
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.14642
2.
-0.145293
3.
-0.145134
4.
-0.144585
5.
-0.143121

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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