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&nbspThe Mack Institute asks

Will Toyota sell or lease more than 750 Mirai in the US in 2016?

Started Apr 22, 2016 02:35AM UTC
Closed Nov 01, 2016 05:00PM UTC

This question was closed with the correct answer "Yes" with an end date of 1 November 2016. Good Car Bad Car reports that Toyota sold 103 Mirai in October, pushing their yearly sales total to 813. The Mirai is Toyota's first commercially launched fuel cell-powered electric vehicle (Mirai, Forbes 1, Forbes 2). In late 2014, Toyota announced the goal of selling 3,000 Mirai in the U.S. by the end of 2017 (Forbes 3). However, only 72 were sold in the last three months of 2015 (Toyota). Image source: Wikimedia Commons. Click on the image for more info. Toyota Mirai sales data can be tracked both during and after the challenge here. Note that sales figures reported include all vehicles acquired by a customer, regardless of how that customer is defined or what kind of payment they made in order to register the vehicle. Hence, sales figures also include leases, and refers to both individual and business customers. The question will be suspended on 31 December 2016 and will be closed when the 2016 data is released.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 100.00%
No 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 210
Average for questions older than 6 months: 125
Number of Forecasts 781
Average for questions older than 6 months: 349
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.240179
2.
-1.223781
3.
-1.211924
4.
-1.209065
5.
-1.208198

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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